The number of unsold properties in Spain will drop to approximately 350,000 in 2016, down 71% on its peak level of 1.2 million which was reached in 2008. The projections have been made through a joint study by the Sociedad de Tasación and the Asprima association in Madrid.
The forecasts were calculated using data from the INE, Business Practice Institute (IPE) and the Network of Qualified Real Estate Advisors (RAIC) and demonstrate that the recovery in Spanish property sales is having a strong impact on the amount of property available and at the same time improving the health of the Spanish property sector.
The study found that 74%, almost three quarters, of the unsold stock is located in the regions of Murcia, Andalucia, Castilla-La-Mancha and the Valencian Community. This figure is projected to fall to 51% next year as demand is rapidly returning for property in the three coastal regions.
In pessimistic statements, Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, the Director General of the Sociedad de Tasación, said that he believes Spain’s property sector is closer to stabilization than recovery and says that when the sector does recover, the recovery will be uneven with some areas performing much more strongly than others.
Positive outlook from Caixabank
Oriol Aspachs, the Director of Macroeconomics at Caixabank Research, was more positive and declared that the adjustment in Spain’s property sector is already complete and that the sector has now moved into the “expansionist phase”. He stated that the banks are not only prepared to finance the sector’s next cycle but that they are already doing so.
Like Fernández-Aceytuno he was keen to stress that the recovery is much stronger in some areas than it is in others but said that in the best areas there will be a huge increase in investment over coming quarters or the prices in those areas will rise significantly.
Aspachs also mentioned the improvements in Spain’s economic panorama with a decrease in the level of unemployment which has seen around half a million people find employment this year which has been accompanied by an increase in Spain’s competitiveness internationally due to a decrease in the cost of labour in the country.
He predicts that an extra 400,000 to 500,000 people will find employment next year and warns that people should expect positive surprises in the near future as factors begin to converge which will cause further improvements in Spain’s property sector.
Main image: Artist’s impression of the Terrazas de Campoamor development on the Costa Blanca ©TM Real Estate Group